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Abstract

The paper presents local dynamic approach to integration of an ensemble of predictors. The classical fusing of many predictor results takes into account all units and takes the weighted average of the results of all units forming the ensemble. This paper proposes different approach. The prediction of time series for the next day is done here by only one member of an ensemble, which was the best in the learning stage for the input vector, closest to the input data actually applied. Thanks to such arrangement we avoid the situation in which the worst unit reduces the accuracy of the whole ensemble. This way we obtain an increased level of statistical forecasting accuracy, since each task is performed by the best suited predictor. Moreover, such arrangement of integration allows for using units of very different quality without decreasing the quality of final prediction. The numerical experiments performed for forecasting the next input, the average PM10 pollution and forecasting the 24-element vector of hourly load of the power system have confirmed the superiority of the presented approach. All quality measures of forecast have been significantly improved.
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Abstract

A non-classical model of interval estimation based on the kernel density estimator is presented in this paper. This model has been compared with interval estimation algorithms of the classical (parametric) statistics assuming that the standard deviation of the population is either known or unknown. The non-classical model does not have to assume belonging of random sample to a normal distribution. A theoretical basis of the proposed model is presented as well as an example of calculation process which makes possible determining confidence intervals of the expected value of long-term noise indicators Aden and LN. The statistical analysis was carried out for 95% interval widths obtained by using each of these models. The inference of their usefulness was performed on the basis of results of non-parametric statistical tests at significance level α = 0.05. The data used to illustrate the proposed solutions and carry out the analysis were results of continuous monitoring of traffic noise recorded in 2004 in one of the main arteries of Krakow in Poland.
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