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Abstract

Hallmark professionalism in probabilistic analysis is to quantify the uncertainties involved in construction materials subject to intrinsic randomness in its physical and mechanical properties and is now gaining popularity in civil engineering arena. As well, knowledge of behaviour of materials is continuously evolving and its statistical descriptors are also changing when more and more data collected or even data updated and hence reliability analysis has to be carried out with the updated data as a continuous process. As per the committee report ACI 544.2R, it is found that there is no attempt made for probabilistic relation between cube compressive strength and cylinder compressive strength for fiber reinforced concrete. In consequence of this report, a robust relation between cube and cylinder of experimentally conducted compressive strength was established by Monte-Carlo simulation technique for different types of fibrous concrete like steel, alkali resistant glass and polyester fibrous concrete before and after thermoshock considering various uncertainties. Nevertheless simulated probabilistic modals, characteristic modals, optimized factor of safety and allowable designed cylinder compressive strength have been developed from the drawn probability of failure graph, which exhibits robust performance in realistic Civil Engineering materials and structures.
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Abstract

The paper presents a proposal for the assessment of the reliability of steel truss (both statically determinate and indeterminate) in the persistent and accidental design situation. In the analysis, a probabilistic approach was used. The global Hasofer-Lind reliability index was employed, computed in successive time steps for the whole structure, not for individual elements. The statically determinate truss was modelled as a serial system from the reliability standpoint. For the statically indeterminate truss, kinematically admissible failure mechanisms were determined by means of the examination of the singularity of the stiffness matrix of the structure, converting the truss into a geometrically variable system. For the problem thus formulated, a serial-parallel reliability model was constructed. Monitoring the reliability index in the successive minutes of the fire makes it possible to estimate the probability of the structure failure, and to decide whether the required safety level is maintained.
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Abstract

The study deals with stability and dynamic problems in bar structures using a probabilistic approach. Structural design parameters are defined as deterministic values and also as random variables, which are not correlated. The criterion of structural failure is expressed by the condition of non-exceeding the admissible load multiplier and condition of non-exceeding the admissible vertical displacement. The Hasofer-Lind index was used as a reliability measure. The primary research tool is the FORM method. In order to verify the correctness of the calculations Monte Carlo and Importance Sampling methods were used. The sensitivity of the reliability index to the random variables was defined. The limit state function is not an explicit function of random variables. This dependence was determined using a numerical procedure, e.g. the finite element methods. The paper aims to present the communication between the STAND reliability analysis program and the KRATA and MES3D external FE programs.
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Abstract

Electric cars (SE) are currently considered to be one of the best ways to reduce CO2 and other air emissions in the transport sector as well as noise in cities. They can reduce the dependency of road transport on imported oil in a visible way. Nevertheless, the demand for electricity for a large amount of SE in road transport is not insignificant and has an impact on the power system. The article analyzes the potential impact of SE on the demand, supply, structure and costs of electricity generation as well as emissions as a result of introducing 1 million SEs by 2025 on Polish roads, and tripling this number by 2035. The competitive electricity market model ORCED was used for the calculations. The results of the analysis indicate that regardless of the charging strategy, the demand for SEs causes a slight increase in the overall electricity demand in Poland and consequently also a slight increase in power generating costs. Even a large increase in SEs in road transport will result in a rather moderate demand for additional generation capacity, assuming that power companies will have some control over the mode of charging cars. The introduction of SEs will not reduce CO2 emissions compared to conventional cars in 2025, on the contrary will increase them regardless of the loading strategy. In 2035 however, the result depends on the charging scenario and both the increase or decrease of emissions is possible. Electric vehicles will increase SO2 net emissions, but they will contribute to a decrease in the net emissions of particulates and NOx.
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Abstract

Probabilistic analysis of a space truss is presented in the paper. Reliability of such a structure is sensitive to geometrical and material imperfections. The objective of this paper is to present a variant of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine mean values and standard deviations of limit loads of engineering structures. The main advantage presented by this method is the small number of sample calculations required to obtain estimators of investigated parameters. Thus the method is straightforward, requiring only preliminaries of probability theory. This approach is illustrated by limit state analysis of a space truss, considering geometric and material imperfections. The calculations were performed for different random models, so the influence of random parameters on the limit load of the truss can be determined. A realistic snow load was imposed.
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