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Abstract

Polish energy security is currently one of the key elements affecting the national security system. Maintaining operational efficiency and the permanent modernization of both, power plants, as well as transformer stations and transmission networks is a starting point of ensuring energy security in our country. This is a significant challenge, taking into account the age of the energy critical infrastructure elements in Poland, as well as the permanent increase of the demand for electricity. This implies a systematic growth of the importance of the issue the country’s energy security. The numerous events and anomalies that accompany our everyday life, such as the storms that passed over Poland on the night of August 11–12, 2017, indicate the considerable sensitivity of the critical energy infrastructure on the impact of various negative factors. The security of Polish critical infrastructure connected with the distribution of electricity is particularly at risk. Therefore, it is desirable not only for current repairs and the modernization of the power system elements, but also for the work related to adapting the infrastructure to current and even forecasted needs, challenges and threats. In the face of the presented research results, the reconstruction of the Polish power system, as well as the implementation of innovative solutions in the production, transmission and distribution of energy seems to be unavoidable. Therefore interdisciplinary research and analyses are recommended, allowing the level security of the critical infrastructure to be increased through the best possible diagnosis of factors that may even slightly threaten this security.
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Abstract

The paper looks at an analysis of the tendency of changes in the fuel structure of electricity generation and thus resulting changes in carbon dioxide emissions. Forecasts drawn up by various institutions and organizations were selected for the analysis. Firstly, on the basis of statistical data contained in (IEA 2017a, IEA 2008) and with the use of Kay’s indicators, the impact of changes in energy intensity of the national income and energy mix on changes in carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2006–2015 for the OECD countries and Poland were analyzed. A small effect of changes was found in the fuel mix in this period of time on the emissions. The main impact was due to changes in the energy intensity of the national income and changes in the national income per capita. Next, selected fuel scenarios for the period up to 2050 (60) were discussed – WEC, IEA, EIA, BP, Shell, with a focus on the WEC scenarios. These have been developed for various assumptions with regard to the pace of economic development, population growth, and developments of the political situation and the situation on the fuel market. For this reason, it is difficult to assess the reliability thereof. The subject of the discussion was mainly the data on the fuel structure of electricity generation and energy intensity of national income and changes in carbon dioxide emissions. The final part of the paper offers a general analysis of forecasts drawn up for Poland. These are quite diverse, with some of them being developed as part of drawing up the Energy Policy for Poland until 2050, and some covering the period up to 2035. An observation has been made that some forecasts render results similar to those characteristic of the WEC Hard Rock scenario.
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