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Abstract

The paper looks at an analysis of the tendency of changes in the fuel structure of electricity generation and thus resulting changes in carbon dioxide emissions. Forecasts drawn up by various institutions and organizations were selected for the analysis. Firstly, on the basis of statistical data contained in (IEA 2017a, IEA 2008) and with the use of Kay’s indicators, the impact of changes in energy intensity of the national income and energy mix on changes in carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2006–2015 for the OECD countries and Poland were analyzed. A small effect of changes was found in the fuel mix in this period of time on the emissions. The main impact was due to changes in the energy intensity of the national income and changes in the national income per capita. Next, selected fuel scenarios for the period up to 2050 (60) were discussed – WEC, IEA, EIA, BP, Shell, with a focus on the WEC scenarios. These have been developed for various assumptions with regard to the pace of economic development, population growth, and developments of the political situation and the situation on the fuel market. For this reason, it is difficult to assess the reliability thereof. The subject of the discussion was mainly the data on the fuel structure of electricity generation and energy intensity of national income and changes in carbon dioxide emissions. The final part of the paper offers a general analysis of forecasts drawn up for Poland. These are quite diverse, with some of them being developed as part of drawing up the Energy Policy for Poland until 2050, and some covering the period up to 2035. An observation has been made that some forecasts render results similar to those characteristic of the WEC Hard Rock scenario.
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