Construction risk assessment is the final and decisive stage of risk analysis. When highly changeable conditions of works execution are predicted, risk should be evaluated in the favorable, moderate, and difficult random conditions of construction. Given the random conditions, the schedule and cost estimate of the construction are developed. Based on these values, the risk of final deadline delay and the risk of total cost increase of construction completion are calculated. Next, the charts of the risks are elaborated. Risk changes are shown in the charts and are analyzed in the range [1, 0].
The paper presents methods of determining the location of cost buffers and corresponding contingency costs in the CPM schedule based on its work breakdown structure. Application of correctly located cost buffers with appropriately established reserve costs is justified by the common overrunning of scheduled costs in construction projects. Interpolated cost buffers (CB) as separate tasks have been combined with relevant summary tasks by the starttostart (SS) relationship, whereas the time of their execution has been dynamically connected with the time of accomplishment of particular summary tasks using the “paste connection” option. Besides cost buffers linked with the group of tasks assigned to summary tasks, a definition of the cost buffer for the entire project (PCB) has been proposed, i.e. as one initial task of the entire project. Contingency costs corresponding to these buffers, depending on the data that the planner has at his disposal, can be determined using different methods, but always depend on the costs of all tasks protected by each buffer. The paper presents an exemplary schedule for a facility and the method of determining locations and cost for buffers CB and PCB, as well as their influence on the course of the curve illustrating the budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS). The proposed solution has been adjusted and presented with consideration of the possibilities created by the scheduling software MS Project, though its general assumptions may be implemented with application of other similar specialist tools.