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Number of results: 788
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Abstract

This study investigated changes in the real-time measured levels of milk β-hydroxybutyrate according milk yield, lactation number and status of reproduction in dairy cows. A total of 378 cows were selected. According to their reproductive status the cows were classified as belonging to the following groups: Fresh (1 – 44 days after calving. n=43). Open (45 – 65 days after calving. n=78), Inseminated (1 – 35 days after insemination. n=133). Pregnant (35 – 60 days after insemination and pregnant (relatively pregnant) (n=124). The cows were milked with DeLaval milking robot (DeLaval Inc., Tumba, Sweden) in combination with a Herd Navigator (Lattec I/S. Hillerød. Denmark) analyser. We observed that milk β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) had a tendency of increasing with an increase of lactation number. The average BHB in multiparous cows was 11.111% higher in comparison with primiparous cows (p<0.001). We found higher BHB concentration in the multiparous cows in all reproduction status groups (p<0.001). A strong positive statistically significant (p<0.001) relationship has been found between BHB and the average milk yield within all groups of primiparous cows although we found a statistically unreliable coefficient of correlation (from -0.202 to 0.057) between highest milk yield and BHB in primiparous and multiparous cows.
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Abstract

Sperm-mediated gene transfer (SMGT) is based on the ability of spermatozoa to bind exoge- nous DNA and transfer it into oocytes by fertilization. However, SMGT is still undergoing opti- mization to improve its efficiency to produce transgenic animals. The acrosome reaction is neces- sary for spermatozoa to carry the exogenous DNA into oocytes. In this study, the effect of the acrosome reaction on the efficiency of spermatozoa carrying exogenous DNA was evalua- ted. The results showed that the efficiency of the acrosome reaction was significantly higher (p<0.05) after incubation with 50 μmol/L progesterone compared to incubation without proges- terone. It was significantly higher (p<0.05) in the 20, 40, and 60 min of progesterone treatment groups than in the 0 min treatment group. The spermatozoa were further incubated with cyanine dye Cy5 labeled DNA (Cy5-DNA) for 30 min at 37°C, and positive fluorescence signals were detected after the acrosome reaction was induced by progesterone at concentrations of 0 and 50 μmol/L for 40 min. The percentage of positive Cy5-DNA signals in spermatozoa was 96.61±2.06% and 97.51±2.03% following exposure to 0 and 50 μmol/L progesterone, respective- ly. The percentage of partial spermatozoa heads observed following combination with Cy5-DNA was 39.73±3.03% and 56.88±3.12% following exposure to 0 and 50 μmol/L progesterone, respec- tively. The ratio of positively stained spermatozoa combined with exogenous DNA showed no reduction after the acrosome reaction. These results suggest that the acrosome reaction might not be the key factor affecting the efficiency of SMGT.
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Abstract

The aim of this study was to establish reference values for 2D and M-mode measurements in Dachshunds. Basic echocardiographic data, including M-mode, 2D and spectral Doppler measurements, was collected, analyzed and compared between 41 healthy Dachshunds and 50 other healthy dogs of similar weight. Echocardiographic reference intervals were prepared for Dachshunds. Dachshunds had a smaller left ventricular diameter in diastole and systole and a thicker septum than other dog breeds. Male Dachshunds had larger diastolic and systolic left ventricular diameter than females. Reference intervals for 2D and M-mode measurements in healthy Dachshunds differ from other dogs of similar weight and should be used for this breed to assess chamber enlargement.
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Abstract

The reliable and rapid diagnosis of infectious animal diseases presents an exceptionally im- portant aspect when considering their control and prevention. The paper describes the compara- tive evaluation of two rapid isothermal amplification methods for diagnosis of African swine fever (ASF). The robustness of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and the cross-priming amplification (CPA) were compared using samples obtained from ASF confirmed animals. Both assays were evaluated in order to define their diagnostic capabilities in terms of ASF diagnosis and reproducibility of the results. Investigations showed no cross-reactivity for other pig patho- gens and no significant differences in the specificity of both assays. The sensitivity of LAMP reached 90%, while that of CPA was 70%. In conclusion, both methods are suitable for imple- mentation in preliminary ASF diagnosis but further improvements are required to enhance their diagnostic sensitivity.
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Abstract

Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a complex, dynamic and hemostatic disorder which develops secondarily to a disease characterized with an imbalance in the pro-coagulant and anti-coagulant components of hemostasis. The aim of the study is to evaluate hemostatic dysfunc- tion and the DIC syndrome in cattle with displaced abomasum (DA), with using the hematologic analyses and an extensive coagulation profile in the 96 hour-period including before and after surgery. The animal material of the study consisted of 12 dairy cows diagnosed with displaced abomasum (9 LDA and 3 RDA without volvulus) in the 2-4 week period after parturation and with no other post-partum disease. In dairy cows diagnosed with DA, hematological, coagulomet- ric (PT, APTT, Fibrinogen) and coagulation factor analyses [D-Dimer, TAT (thrombin-anti- thrombin complex), ATIII (antithrombin III), PAI-1 (plazminogen activator inhibitor-1] were performed in blood samples obtained before the operation as well as 30 minutes, 60 minutes and 2, 5, 10, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours after the operation. In the DA cases, abnormalities were found in 6 of the 8 coagulation parameters. In the LDA and RDA groups, prolonged PT (sec), PT (INR) and APTT, hypofibrinogenemia, an increase in serum D-Dimer concentration at 72 and 96 hours after the operation and an increase in serum ATIII concentrations before and 30, 60 minutes and 2, 5, 72 and 96 hours after the operation was found (p<0.05). Hemostatic dysfunction and the risk of DIC developing in DA cases and continuing in the post-operative period was determined.
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Abstract

In this study, we propose a possible way of obtaining reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free offspring from genetically valuable lines of Přeštice black-pied boars com- ming from PRRSV-positive pig breeding herds with the use of artificial insemination (AI). The ejaculates were collected from 4 different lines of boars. Samples of fresh semen were not detected with the virus and 12 sows were inseminated. Blood samples of sows and their offspring were repeatedly tested for the virus but the results were negative. We managed in this way to maintain the endangered population of this breed and obtain PRRSV-free offspring.
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Abstract

The aim of the study was to develop new laparoscopic technique for repeated recovery of sheep oocytes. Oocytes were aspirated with specifically designed catheter. It allowed to recover oocytes without ovary damage and to preserve very good quality of recovered oocytes. Fifteen ewes were oocytes donors. Oocytes were collected: one time (group I, n=15), two times (group II, n=15), three times (group III, n=10), four times (group IV, n=5). The endoscope was inserted into the abdominal cavity. Two trockars for putting the manipulators were inserted 15 cm cranial from the udder. Oocytes were collected by aspiration of the follicular fluid from the ovarian follicles. The observed clinical complications were: ovary bleeding and cicatrix at place of needle insertion, the fragmentary adhesion of infundibulum and ovary, adhesions of omentum and peri- toneum near the place where the grasping forceps were inserted and adhesion of ovary and uterus. Ovarian follicles (n=204) were aspirated, 130 (63.8%) oocytes were obtained. Out of 130 obtained oocytes, 112 were qualified for in vitro maturation. The remaining 18 oocytes (13.8%) were rejected due to cytoplasmic changes. The proposed technique allows for the collecting oocytes of good quality that can be used for IMV/IVF techniques and cloning.
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Abstract

Several human studies have reported that capsaicin has anti-pruritic effects. Moreover, sever- al concentrations of topical capsaicin have been used to alleviate itch. The aim of this study was to investigate the anti-pruritic effect of capsaicin against histamine-induced pruritus compared with that of topical steroid or vehicle in 15 healthy beagles. Fifteen dogs were divided into three groups (n = 5 each), and treated topically with one of the following on the left side of the neck: capsaicin, positive control (steroid), or negative control (vehicle). Each treatment was performed twice daily for 8 days. All dogs were injected with histamine intradermally before treatment and on the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th days of the treatment to evoke itch. Pruritus, wheal, and erythema intensity were assessed at each evaluation; cutaneous temperature was also recorded. On the final day, skin biopsy was conducted for histopathological evaluation for all dogs. The severity of pruritus was lesser in the capsaicin-treated group compared with the negative control group on day 8 (p<0.05). In the capsaicin and steroid groups, wheal size, erythema index, and cutaneous temperature also decreased compared with pretreatment. Histopathological evaluation showed that the capsaicin-treated group had a higher number of inflammatory cells in the dermis com- pared to the vehicle control group; however, the steroid-treated group showed less severe inflam- matory reactions than the vehicle control group. These results suggest that capsaicin cannot reduce inflammation but may play a helpful role in reducing pruritus in dogs.
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Abstract

Four and a half years of African Swine Fever (ASF) in population of free-ranging wild boars and domestic pigs revealed a number of novel insights into the disease epidemiology. Until November 20th, 2018, in total 3048 cases in wild boars and 213 outbreaks in domestic pigs have been confirmed. In spite of low contagiosity as well as low rate of ASF spread in wild boars the disease has an enormous socio-economical impact on the production of pigs in Poland. One of the most important aspects which directly influences the dynamics of ASF spread is the unpredictable hu- man activity. Another important factor responsible for continuous ASF spread is fast recovery of wild boar population in spite of efforts taken by hunters. Assuming our scientific opinion ASF seems to be present in wildlife for the incoming few or several years. Therefore, extraordinary measures should be prepared and undertaken to limit the risk of the occurrence of future out- breaks in domestic pigs. One of the most crucial issues is implementation of strict biosecurity measures in all domestic pigs holdings.
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Abstract

A clinical trial was performed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of osaterone acetate (OSA) in the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in dogs. Osaterone acetate (Ypozane, Virbac) was administered orally at a dose of 0.25 mg/kg body weight once a day for seven days to 23 dogs with BPH. During the 28-day trial, the dogs were monitored five times for their clinical signs and prostate volume. The OSA treatment promoted rapid reduction of clinical scores to 73.2% on day 7 and to 5.9% on day 28 (p<0.05). Osaterone acetate induced the complete clinical remission in approximately 83.0% of the dogs on day 28. The prostate volume regressed to 64.3% of the pretreatment volume after two weeks of the treatment (p<0.05) and to 54.7% at the end of the trial (p<0.05). In conclusion, OSA quickly reduced clinical signs and volume of the prostate glands in dogs with BPH.
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Abstract

Industry 4.0 and the associated idea of society 4.0 pose specific challenges for the concept of sustainable development. These challenges relate, inter alia, to responsibility, in which the changes to date have overall entailed: • a transition from ex post responsibility to ex ante responsibility (H. Jonas); • a transition from individual responsibility to corporate social responsibility. In the context of society 4.0 there is a need for shared responsibility. The problem of justice and therefore the implementation of sustainable development not only becomes an open problem, but also requires constant updating and specifi c optimisation.
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Abstract

This article takes up the matter of contemporary threats to cities and urbanity, setting the problems cities face today against the background of the two categories of the resilient city and the city developing sustainably. The author describes and presents the evolution of the sustainable development concept as such, as well as the generational change in priorities that has taken place where the development of urbanised areas is concerned, given the way the concept has undergone a certain devaluation, in the light of its failure to achieve fulfi lment. The challenges cities face today require multi-faceted activity, in respect of increased inclusivity, robustness and resilience, and flexibility. This leaves today’s idea of the resilient city embracing old elements of the sustainable city, but also augmenting them in various ways.
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Abstract

Though current conservation policy in Poland refl ects world trends and approaches to action, compliance with all of its assumptions would entail the Polish authorities remodelling both the system and the methods by which natural resources are managed. On the one hand this requires a change of approach to the management of natural resources from the traditional, purely nature-related one, to a more modern inter-disciplinary one that takes in social and economic conditioning. On the other hand, a system need to be put in place to allow these ideas to be introduced in practice. The work described here deals with the participation of different stakeholder groups in nature management, with this regarded as a method of increasing the latter’s effi ciency. The many examples (of good practice) presented by the author well illustrate the wisdom of the approach, which often seems to achieve success where it is attempted.
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Abstract

It is contended that, in essence, climate policy is sustainable development policy, given that it postulates the use of renewable resources, and an increase in the effectiveness of use of non-renewable ones. Furthermore, it serves the security of future generations more than present ones; for while unfavourable impacts of climate change are already making their presence felt, truly negative consequences of considerable signifi cance are likely to be more of a matter for the second half of the present century. This is why, in analysing the evolution of the approach to climate policy through the late 20th century and into the 21st, it is also possible to appraise changes in the approach to the sustainable-development concept. This article has therefore sought to offer the author’s analysis of how the approach to sustainable development has evolved, by reference to Poland’s climate policy from 1988 through to 2016. As this is done, an attempt is also made to identify the conditioning that has decided upon and will go on determining the shape of national policy in this domain. Climate policy in Poland has been developing since the early 1990s. At the outset, it was not a source of controversy, with the consequence that the country rather rapidly signed up to and then ratifi ed the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, as early as in the late 1990s, reservations began to be expressed, to the effect that actions to protect the climate might pose a threat to Poland’s economy. A key turning point as regards the approach came with the growing dispute over the EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package. It was also at this time that a thesis began to take shape, holding that the goals of climate policy where at best unfavourable and at worst dangerous for Poland. This approach in fact held sway in successive years, leaving this country’s cooperation with the EU over this matter severely hindered. The main reason for this change of approach to climate policy can be considered to lie in the politicisation thereof, and hence the increasing dominance of the short-term interests of the Polish political elite over either the public interest or the security of future generations.
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Abstract

In 1981, Polish canoeists (members of the Bystrze Academic Travel Club) made the first journey along the waters of the River Colca in the section located in Arequipa Province (Peru), along which the waters flow in a deep canyon. Information on this sporting achievement – and a description of the Canyon and its surrounding area filled the Peruvian press and tourist publications around the world, ensuring that the Colca Canyon became one of the most important goals for tourists anywhere in Peru from that time on. However, mass infl uxes of tourists, noisy trips, the development of hotel infrastructure and other items required in tourism have generated permanent change in the character of the Colca Valley, and done much to influence the lives of its inhabitants.
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Abstract

Biodiversity conservation cannot operate in Central Eastern European countries without a well-established monitoring system, that is dependent on the citizen scientists input. Here we analyse, based on a Polish case: (1) The contribution of NGOs to the national nature monitoring scheme and their collaboration with governmental and scientific institutions and (2) the motivation of citizen scientists to volunteer for NGOs’ monitoring activities. The study comprises a focus group interview, 30 in-depth interviews with coordinators, citizen scientists, experts and a 23 days long participant observation of a model NGO. We have assessed the monitoring input of NGOs as being a contributory factor influencing the biodiversity conservation effectiveness. The cooperation between governmental, scientific institutions and NGOs exists, but is dependent on national funding. Although NGOs highlight the lack of coherence in monitoring methodology, they are willing to join the biodiversity monitoring, especially at the European Ecological Network – Natura 2000 sites. On the other hand the trust concerning cooperation with citizen scientists is limited. However, despite this, they still turned out to be trustworthy partners. The most effective way to maintain cooperation with citizen scientists is to create a bond in a group and to provide them with the opportunity to develop their passion for nature. Our findings have shed light on the growing importance of citizen scientists in biodiversity governance, providing recommendations for development of the effective monitoring schemes based on the volunteer work of citizen scientists.
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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to identify and assess environmental risks that may have the greatest impact on the future of humanity. They were divided into two basic groups, i.e. for natural processes and resources. In addition, climate change is described as different group. The authors decided, that a holistic approach to this issue is more desirable than dividing it into two above-mentioned groups. The comparison of various threats was possible due to the application of identical assessment criteria, such as: the harmfulness, rate of spread, scope and moment of occurrence of a given group of threats. Each of the listed criteria has been evaluated on a five-point scale, where 1 has the smallest and 5 the largest impact force. The obtained results show the leading importance of natural processes in maintaining the existing Earth system. In addition, the authors point to a greater risk of problems related to renewable resources than non-renewable one. As a result, it can be assumed that the current degradation of natural processes and excessive use of resources is likely to lead to the risk of global disasters.
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Abstract

The Author discusses the present state of Polish geography against the background of the traditional position, and the rapid development taking place after the Second World War. The introduction of new methods and new directions, as well as new organization are considered to have been reflected in the rising international position of Polish geography. Further topics here include the relationship between physical and human geography, the growing de facto separation of these two branches, and the development of several independent sciences rooted in geography but now existing apart from it (like geomorphology, climatology, hydrology, etc. on the physical geography side, with the element of the environment as a subject of study). On the other hand, social economic geography examines the effects of human activity in the environment, thereby synthesizing spatial management and bridging the gap between the earth sciences, the economy and the social sciences. The degradation of environmental resources, explosion of the human population and climate change have all forced geography (and other sciences) to head in the global direction, as well as towards interdisciplinary cooperation, likewise on the level of the world as a whole. If we are to meet the challenges this all entails, we will need to think about creating interdisciplinary problem teams, as well as activating existing organisational structures in science (notably the geographical sciences), with full benefit taken from research centres that run studies on differing spatial scales, in conjunction with international global programmes like the Future Earth. The geography of the future should not be a closed science, but should draw on the knowledge of scholars of various specialisations, seeking environmental solutions that require intervention on both the global and regional scales. Polish geography should participate in this activity, inter alia as part of Future Earth, as a new venture. It can also be regarded as our task to ensure that society is aware of all the above issues.
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Abstract

GPR method is perfectly suited for recognizing of sedimentary facies diversity in shallowly occurring sediments if there is a contrast of electrical properties between and/or within each layer. The article deals with the issue of the correlation between GPR surveys results and sedimentological analyses. As a result of this correlation a conceptual model of depositional systems of studied areas was developed. Studies were performed in two areas located in central Poland, where glacial deposits formed in the Middle Polish (Saalian) Glaciation are present. The study was based on 49 sediment samples and 21 GPR profiles. Analyses of lithofacies as well as granulometric and mineralogical composition of deposits of collected samples were carried out, showing the diversity of glacial deposits in both study sites. During GPR measurements shielded antenna with a frequency of 500 MHz was used which allowed high-resolution mapping of the internal structure of deposits and to identify four characteristic radar facies. Correlation of GPR profiles with point, one-dimensional sedimentological studies allowed the unambiguous interpretation of the GPR image and draw conclusions about the formation environment of individual units. Geophysical and sedimentological data obtained during study provide a new and detailed insight into selected glacial deposits in central Poland.
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Abstract

The main scientific goal of this work is the presentation of the role of selected geophysical methods (Ground-Penetrating Radar GPR and Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT) to identify water escape zones from retention reservoirs. The paper proposes a methodology of geophysical investigations for the identification of water escape zones from a retention fresh water lake (low mineralised water). The study was performed in a lake reservoir in Upper Silesia. Since a number of years the administrators of the lake have observed a decreasing water level, a phenomenon that is not related to the exploitation of the object. The analysed retention lake has a maximal depth between 6 and 10 m, depending on the season. It is located on Triassic carbonate rocks of the Muschelkalk facies. Geophysical surveys included measurements on the water surface using ground penetration radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) methods. The measurements were performed from watercrafts made of non-metal materials. The prospection reached a depth of about 1 to 5 m below the reservoir bottom. Due to large difficulties of conducting investigations in the lake, a fragment with an area of about 5,300 m 2, where service activities and sealing works were already commenced, was selected for the geophysical survey. The scope of this work was: (1) field geophysical research (Ground-Penetrating Radar GPR and Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT with geodesic service), (2) processing of the obtained geophysical research results, (3) modelling of GPR and ERT anomalies on a fractured water reservoir bottom, and (4) interpretation of the obtained results based on the modelled geophysical anomalies. The geophysical surveys allowed for distinguishing a zone with anomalous physical parameters in the area of the analysed part of the retention lake. ERT surveys have shown that the water escape zone from the reservoir was characterised by significantly decreased electrical resistivities. Diffraction hyperboles and a zone of wave attenuation were observed on the GPR images in the lake bottom within the water escape zone indicating cracks in the bottom of the water reservoir. The proposed methodology of geophysical surveys seems effective in solving untypical issues such as measurements on the water surface.
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Abstract

Lacustrine deposits from Ortel Królewski II (Eastern Poland) represent the Holsteinian Interglacial (MIS 11c). They are characterized by an extremely rich occurrence of ostracod and mollusc fauna. Collected samples represent pre-optimal part of the Holsteinian Interglacial corresponding to Picea–Alnus, Taxus and Pinus–Larix zones. Based on ostracod assemblage analysis a depth of the paleolake, the energy of the environment and the average January and July air temperature were reconstructed. Ostracods from Ortel Królewski II indicate a lake with possible periodic overflow sur- rounded by periodically flooded grasslands, which existed in the study area during the pre-optimal part of Holsteinian Interglacial.
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Abstract

A sediment core, 350 cm long recovered from Młynek Lake, northern of Poland (Warmia and Masuria Region) was analyzed with respect to their content of diatoms and chrysophyte cysts. The aim was to reconstruct the lake water level and climatic changes during the past 2500 years. The recognized diatom assemblages displayed marked floristic changes along the sediment core samples. The main change in diatom composition consists of a shift from an assemblage dominated by benthic Fragilaria sensu lato species through marked intervals to a planktonic one in distinct zones. A high proportion of benthic to plankton taxa has been reported as indicative for a lowering of the lake level with long ice cover in a cold dry climate and a shift from benthic to planktonic diatom taxa reflects arising water level with longest growing season and reduced ice cover on the lake during a warm wet climate. Multivariate statistical analysis included hierarchical ascending clustering distinguished four diatom ecological groups. The analyzed core section was divided into 11 diatom zones according to a distribution of ecological groups and variation in abundance of dominant species supported by 14C data. The results displayed a developmental history of the Młynek Lake that can be divided into 6 main phases of alternating warm wet and cold dry shifts. A distinct dominance of planktonic eutrophic indicator diatoms accompanied by a low abundance of chrysophyte cysts indicates increased lake trophicity and a general trend for the increasing anthropogenic impact.
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Abstract

The use of biomass in the energy industry is the consequence of ongoing efforts to replace Energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewable sources. However, due to the diversity of the biomass, its use as a solid fuel generates waste with diverse and unstable chemical composition. Waste from biomass combustion is a raw material with a very diverse composition, even in the case of using only one type of biomass. The content of individual elements in fly ash from the combustion of biomass ranges from zero to tens of percent. This makes it difficult to determine the optimal recovery methods. The ashes from the combustion of biomass are most commonly used in the production of building materials and agriculture. This article presents the elemental composition of the most commonly used biomass fuels. The results of the analysis of elemental composition of fly ashes from the combustion of forest and agricultural biomass in fluidized bed boilers used in the commercial power industry were presented. These ashes are characterized by a high content of calcium (12.3–19.4%), silicon (1.2–8.3%), potassium (0.05–1.46%), chlorine (1.1–6.1%), and iron (0.8–6.5%). The discussed ashes contained no sodium. Aluminum was found only in one of the five ashes. Manganese, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, zinc, sulfur, bismuth, titanium and zirconium were found in all of the examined ashes. The analysis of elemental composition may allow for a preliminary assessment of the recovery potential of a given ash.
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Abstract

The functioning of European economies and societies requires a stable and sustainable supply of mineral resources. For 10 years now EU has been developing raw materials initiative to secure European minerals supply. In many cases, areas with known or hypothetic mineral resources, are not sufficiently valued by society and authorities, remain unprotected and face competing land uses with the risk of becoming sterilized. MINATURA 2020 project was born out of a need to develop a harmonised framework which allow a common way of identifying “mineral deposits of public importance” (MDoPI) and their safeguarding via land use planning. The project has left a useful set of guidelines and proposals how to advance on the creation of a European network of MDoPIs to avoid sterilization of “deposits worth safeguarding”. In Poland, the need for legal protection of mineral deposits has been discussed intensively in recent years. Various proposals aimed at better system of mineral deposits safeguarding, especially those which should be recognized as of public importance, have been proposed. However, until now only a few coal deposits were recognized as strategic. Currently, the Polish National Mineral Policy is under preparation. Its overriding objective is to provide access to the necessary minerals, also in the longterm perspective. It assumes among others activities aimed at protection of mineral deposits regarding land use planning system. Paper presents scope and general results of MINATURA2020 project, with details on MINATURA2020 methodology implementation in Poland, Project of the Polish National Mineral Policy with its objectives and key pillars, position of MDoPIs in this Project, and – finally – expected future steps related to MDoPI safeguarding in EU and in Poland.
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Abstract

Overseas mining investment generally faces considerable risk due to a variety of complex risk factors. Therefore, indexes are often based on conditions of uncertainty and cannot be fully quantified. Guided by set pair analysis (SPA) theory, this study constructs a risk evaluation index system based on an analysis of the risk factors of overseas mining investment and determines the weights of factors using entropy weighting methods. In addition, this study constructs an identity-discrepancycontrary risk assessment model based on the 5-element connection number. Both the certainty and uncertainty of the various risks are treated uniformly in this model and it is possible to mathematically describe and quantitatively express complex system decisions to evaluate projects. Overseas mining investment risk and its changing trends are synthetically evaluated by calculating the adjacent connection number and analyzing the set pair potential. Using an actual overseas mining investment project as an example, the risk of overseas mining investment can be separated into five categories according to the risk field, and then the evaluation model is quantified and specific risk assessment results are obtained. Compared to the field investigation, the practicability and effectiveness of the evaluation method are illustrated. This new model combines static and dynamic factors and qualitative and quantitative information, which improves the reliability and accuracy of risk evaluation. Furthermore, this evaluation method can also be applied to other similar evaluations and has a certain scalability.
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