Construction risk assessment is the final and decisive stage of risk analysis. When highly changeable conditions of works execution are predicted, risk should be evaluated in the favorable, moderate, and difficult random conditions of construction. Given the random conditions, the schedule and cost estimate of the construction are developed. Based on these values, the risk of final deadline delay and the risk of total cost increase of construction completion are calculated. Next, the charts of the risks are elaborated. Risk changes are shown in the charts and are analyzed in the range [1, 0].
The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.
This article aims to identify potential risk factors affecting the implementation and synchronisation of surveying and construction works during building and operation of roads. The task was executed on the basis of literature studies and experience. The article is an introduction to the research that has been conducted by the authors on the reasonably precise index of factors which one may deal with during the implementation of facilities of this type. The raised issue is crucial for financial and time reasons, but what is important in the roads construction - also for social ones, as prolonged traffic disruption adversely affects the environment.
The purpose of this article is to present the preparation of Project Risk Assessment Methodology and its mitigation in complex construction projects. The main text provides a summary of the approach, the method used and the findings. The conclusions have been drawn that the proper tools for quantifying risks have to be based on the criteria specific for mathematical statistic and probability or at least fuzziness. Function, which makes possible to categorize any risks into one of the five categories, is a combination of probability and the impact on one of the items: people and their safety or budget, cost, schedule and planning or quality and performance. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented.
The aim of the paper is to point out that the Monte Carlo simulation is an easy and flexible approach when it comes to forecasting risk of an asset portfolio. The case study presented in the paper illustrates the problem of forecasting risk arising from a portfolio of receivables denominated in different foreign currencies. Such a problem seems to be close to the real issue for enterprises offering products or services on several foreign markets. The changes in exchange rates are usually not normally distributed and, moreover, they are always interdependent. As shown in the paper, the Monte Carlo simulation allows for forecasting market risk under such circumstances.
The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina, Mendoza. To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2 was used to generate statistics on L. botrana captures and the mean temperature accumulation for the pixel. Four sets of logistic regression were constructed using the percentage of accumulated trap catches/grid/week and the degree-day accumulation above 7°C, from 1st July. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. According to our results, it can be expected that 50% of male adult emergence for the first flight occurs at 248.79 ± 4 degree-days (DD), in the second flight at 860.18 ± 4.1 DD, while in the third and the fourth flights, 1671.34 ± 5.8 DD and 2335.64 ± 4.3 DD, respectively. Subsequent climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological model. The upper valley of Río Negro and Neuquén are environmentally similar. Valleys of the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered. The combination of two models for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species.
The article presents an analysis and evaluation of the accident rate in selected European Union countries. On the basis of available statistical data, the analysis of accidents in various sectors of the European Union economy was carried out. Afterwards, a ranking of countries regarding accidents in the construction industry was developed. For the selected representative countries, analysis of changes in the indicators which characterize the accident rate during the period between 2008 and 2012 was carried out. Conclusions resulting from the conducted research were formulated.
In Poland, it often happens that construction objects are subject to demolition work for different reasons. Demolition, according the Construction Law, is defined as a type of construction works and, as such, represents a particular type of construction project. As in other construction projects, a very important phase, in addition to execution of the works, is to prepare, design and plan demolition works. Some demolition activities are covered by appropriate regulations and can be described as typical. On the other hand the technical side of demolition works depends on many factors such as: the type of building, its age, technical condition, type of construction, etc. This article covers the analysis of the stages and tasks in the preparatory phase of the building demolition. This work will also present a description of the tasks carried out during the demolition works based on the example of a historic tenement house located in Krakow. This analysis aims to identify implementation problems and sources of risk that may occur during this type of construction work.
Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and the construction technology model. The first describes the probabilistic properties of the structure execution's technology. The second describes the probabilistic properties of the works execution. Both models contain basic probabilistic data for scheduling, cost estimating, and risk assessment of the construction.
The purpose of this article is to identify and assess environmental risks that may have the greatest impact on the future of humanity. They were divided into two basic groups, i.e. for natural processes and resources. In addition, climate change is described as different group. The authors decided, that a holistic approach to this issue is more desirable than dividing it into two above-mentioned groups. The comparison of various threats was possible due to the application of identical assessment criteria, such as: the harmfulness, rate of spread, scope and moment of occurrence of a given group of threats. Each of the listed criteria has been evaluated on a five-point scale, where 1 has the smallest and 5 the largest impact force. The obtained results show the leading importance of natural processes in maintaining the existing Earth system. In addition, the authors point to a greater risk of problems related to renewable resources than non-renewable one. As a result, it can be assumed that the current degradation of natural processes and excessive use of resources is likely to lead to the risk of global disasters.
This paper presents the innovative activity of enterprises as a process that is risky but necessary for the survival of a company in a competitive market, and as a way to maximize the long-term value for the owners. Risks and benefits were analysed, and the possible sources of added value in innovative projects were identified in the context of the capital market equilibrium and the budgeting of investments. Innovative projects become a source of added value for investors if the financial effects such as changes in the residual cash flow and higher growth rate outweigh the combined impact on the risk generated by two factors: increase of systematic risk and emerging specific risks.
Hass avocado cultivation in Colombia has grown rapidly in area in recent years. It is being planted in marginal areas, which leads to low yields, and in many cases is related to diseases. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can offer a view of the potential geographic and environmental distribution of diseases, and thus identify areas with suitable or unsuitable conditions for their development. The aim of the study was to assess current and potential distribution of the major diseases on Hass avocado in Colombia. Areas planted with Hass avocado in Antioquia, Colombia were sampled for diseases including the following pathogens: Phytophthora cinnamomi, Verticillium sp., Lasiodiplodia theobromae, Phytophthora palmivora, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato, Pestalotia sp., and Capnodium sp., and one disorder hypoxia-anoxia. These pathogens were selected based on their relevance (incidence-severity) and capacity to cause damage in different tissues of avocado plants. Severity and incidence of each disease were related to environmental information from vegetation indices and topographic variables using maximum entropy modeling approaches (MaxEnt). Models were calibrated only across areas sampled, and then transferred more broadly to areas currently planted, and to potential zones for planting. Combinations of best performance and low omission rates were the basis for model selection. Results show that Hass avocado has been planted in areas highly conducive for many pathogens, particularly for Phytophthora cinnamomi and hypoxia-anoxia disorder. Ecological niche modeling approaches offer an alternative toolset for planning and making assessments that can be incorporated into disease management plans.
The paper concerns the assessment of blackout hazards in the power systems. On the basis of statistical data from more than one hundred failures in power systems that affected the world in the last fifty years, the analysis was carried out regarding the number of people affected by a blackout, power losses in the system, duration of a failure and its direct causes. The paper also describes the methodology of risk analysis and vulnerability analysis of the extraordinary events occurrence in electrical power systems resulting in failures. The structure of risk analysis was based on the bow tie model, identifying threats, unwanted events, barriers and consequences of a system failure. Moreover, particular attention was drawn to the impact of the power reserve deficit in the Polish Power System in the coming years on the increase in the risk of a blackout failure.
When considering tax reporting, taxpayers have an individual attitude towards the risk of being caught evading taxes by the tax authorities. This attitude is interdependent with how this inherent risk is perceived. We propose to analyse this phenomenon through a risk perspective by adding a risk attitude and corresponding perceived probability of being caught evading. In this paper, we study the dynamics of tax evasion under risk perception and attitude, and the consequent propensity of imitators to evade or to comply. Under this proposal, we conduct our experiments through a multi-agent based simulation. Simulation results suggest first that the risk attitude, in conjunction with perceived risk and its consequences are the main reasons to guarantee a low level of tax evasion. Secondly, results also demonstrate a non-linear impact of tax rate, investment interest rate and fines which is especially interesting and non-intuitive.
Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than 300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently, X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding, inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.
In this publication, the strategy of land resources administration is presented on the basis of consideration of proposed result factors. The research methodology is based on the use of the PESTLE analytical model in conjunction with economic-mathematical modeling. The scientific novelty of the publication is developing the technology of administration of land resources on the basis of cadastral and other statistical information, which allows obtaining scientifically grounded solutions on the use of land resources. Considering the process of Land Resources Administration as a procedure based on making certain decisions when creating a management system which takes into account the internal and external relationships in this system, the postulate is about determining the degree of trust in this system, establishing economic, environmental and social risks when using it. To a certain extent, the process of Land Resources Administration is a prediction of the effective use of this natural potential in the future. It should be noted that the reliability of the forecast decision depends on the nature and parameters of uncertainties and the duration of their validity. Consequently, while making operational decisions on land resources for a short perspective, the forecasting is more reliable than for a long one. It becomes an effective mechanism of objective evaluation of the state of land resources and the prospects for their use. In this publication the main influencing decision making factors and the technological scheme of the solution of the problem are given.
During the planning and controlling of the construction process, most attention is focu sed on risk analysis, especially in the context of final costs and deadlines of the investment. In this analysis, the primary and most significant concern is the proper identification and quantification of events, which on a certain level of probability may affect the development process. This paper presents the result of a risk analysis for a particular building object, made after completion of the investment and accepting it for use. Knowledge of the planned values and the actual investment process allowed for the identification of the events and their effects that in this case have significantly disrupted the investment process. The limited total cost of the investment project in question had a considerable impact on the progress of the project execution. Despite three transitions of administrative procedures, the opening date of the shopping centre was delayed by only three weeks.
This article shows incidents associated with the use of gas as an energy carrier. It presents selected incidents which have occurred in Poland and around the world in recent decades. Based on this, consequences of gas and air mixture explosions were analysed as well. The article presents the main causes of gas incidents which have taken place, as per instances which are similar worldwide. Incidents associated with the use of gas are not frequent, but at the same time very tragic as they often lead to illness or even death. In Poland, in the last twenty years, construction area disasters caused by gas explosions account for only 5% of all which have occurred, but the number of fatalities resulting from these cases is approximately 14%. The number of individuals injured reached 39% of all construction disaster victims. Considering all these facts, it is necessary to undertake wide preventive measures in order to increase safety in the use of gaseous fuels.
Disorders of the heart and blood vessels are the leading cause of health problems and death. Early detection of them is extremely valuable as it can prevent serious incidents (e.g. heart attack, stroke) and associated complications. This requires extending the typical mobile monitoring methods (e.g. Holter ECG, tele-ECG) by introduction of integrated, multiparametric solutions for continuous monitoring of the cardiovascular system. In this paper we propose the wearable system that integrates measurements of cardiac data with actual estimation of the cardiovascular risk level. It consists of two wirelessly connected devices, one designed in the form of a necklace, the another one in the form of a bracelet (wrist watch). These devices enable continuous measurement of electrocardiographic, plethysmographic (impedance-based and optical-based) and accelerometric signals. Collected signals and calculated parameters indicate the electrical and mechanical state of the heart and are processed to estimate a risk level. Depending on the risk level an appropriate alert is triggered and transmitted to predefined users (e.g. emergency departments, the family doctor, etc.).
The aim of the study was to evaluate the combined effect of noise exposure and additional risk factors on permanent hearing threshold shift. Three additional risk factors were: exposure to organic solvents, smoking and elevated blood pressure. The data on exposure and health status of employees were collected in 24 factories. The study group comprised of 3741 noise male exposed workers of: mean age 39±8 years, mean tenure 16±7 years and LEX,8h = 86 ± 5 dB. For each subject, hearing level was measured with pure tone audiometry, blood pressure and noise exposure were assessed from the records of local occupational health care and obligatory noise measurements performed by employers. Smoking and solvent exposure were assessed with questionnaire. The study group was divided into subgroups with respect to the considered risk factors. In the analysis, the distribution of hearing level of each subgroup was compared to the predicted one which the standard calculation method described in ISO 1999:1990. For each of the considered risk factors, the difference between measured and calculated hearing level distribution was used to establish, by the least square method, a noise dose related correction square function for the standard method. The considered risk factors: solvent exposure, smoking and elevated blood pressure combined with noise exposure, may increase degree of hearing loss.
This work is a contribution to a normative approach of noise assessment in the professional environment. It permits the identification of the affected workstations on the one hand and on the other hand it constitutes an important support to the preoccupations of the impact study on the environment in plants. It also informs us on the adequate preparation of the procedures required by the Environmental Management System (ISO 14001) being implemented in steel-making complex ArcelorMittal Algeria. It constitutes an answer to the recommended environmental politics. The proposed calculation methods are verified according to the recognized sources (ISO 9612, 2009) and the results will be estimated in relation to the legal thresholds recommended by international bodies. The methodology for measuring the noise exposure levels has been done according to the following steps: work analysis; selection of measurement strategy; measurements; error handling and uncertainty evaluations; calculations; and presentation of results. This will lead us to an implementation of a corrective and preventive action plan intended to master this occupational risk carrying prejudice to the health of the workers.
Investor bears responsibility for proper preparation of the investment process. One of his tasks is to prepare the project documentation and obtaina building permit. Frequently, during his work, there are situations and events whose im pact interferes with the design solutions. Regardless of reasons, alterations to a project constitute a source of cost risk. In each case, the Investor should be prepared for this type of a risk. Exposure to risk should be taken into account in the planning stage of the investment. Also, a model of investment execution should be chosen at this stage. The type of model is associated with the distribution of risk throughout the project. The aim of this paper is to identify events that generate risk related to alterations to Project Documentation in the context of the selection of the investment executionmodel.
The paper presents an approach for evaluation of the likelihood of damage to the transportation infrastructure in the context of the terrorist attacks on the example of a number of bridges located in Wrocław (Poland). Assuming that there will be only one bridge destroyed in a given area, in order to determine the probability of damage to one of the objects, there was one of multi-criteria optimi-zation methods used, i.e. the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The main advantage of the analysis carried out was that the accepted hierarchy of decision-making options could be easily explained in a scientifi c manner, not only with reference to personal knowledge, experience, and intuition.
This paper addresses the issue of antibacterial drugs, estrogens and cytostatic drugs’ presence in surface waters and their influence on animals. The ecotoxicity and the impact of three active compounds: ciprofloxacin, 17α-ethinylestradiol and 5-fluorouracil on protozoa, crustaceans and fish were examined. Acute tests (crustaceans’ immobilization test, fish survival test, enzymatic test on Daphnia magna) and chronic tests (growth test on protozoa, reproduction test on crustaceans and juvenile growth test on two species of fish) were performed. Acute toxicity studies revealed diversified species - sensitivity to the tested compounds. Crustaceans Artemia salina were the most resistant to all three pharmaceuticals. Fish also demonstrated low sensitivity to ciprofloxacin and 5-fluorouracil (LC(EC)50-96h > 100 mg/l). In the survival tests, the greatest harm in respect to fish and crustaceans was demonstrated by 17α-ethinylestradiol, and in the enzymatic tests - by ciprofloxacin. In all chronic tests, the toxic effects of drugs were proven. Tested compounds limited reproduction of crustaceans and growth of protozoa and fry. The risk assessment, conducted on the basis of the PEC/PNEC quotient, showed a significant risk in relation to aquatic animals caused by the presence of 17α-ethinylestradiol and 5-fluorouracil in concentrations detected in surface waters.
System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.