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Abstract

This paper researches the application of grey system theory in cost forecasting of the coal mine. The grey model (GM(1.1)) is widely used in forecasting in business and industrial systems with advantages of minimal data, a short time and little fluctuation. Also, the model fits exponentially with increasing data more precisely than other prediction techniques. However, the traditional GM(1.1) model suffers from the poor anti-interference ability. Aimed at the flaws of the conventional GM(1.1) model, this paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting model with the theory of background value optimization and Fourier-series residual error correction based on the traditional GM(1.1) model. The new model applies the golden segmentation optimization method to optimize the background value and Fourier-series theory to extract periodic information in the grey forecasting model for correcting the residual error. In the proposed dynamic model, the newest data is gradually added while the oldest is removed from the original data sequence. To test the new model’s forecasting performance, it was applied to the prediction of unit costs in coal mining, and the results show that the prediction accuracy is improved compared with other grey forecasting models. The new model gives a MAPE & C value of 0.14% and 0.02, respectively, compared to 1.75% and 0.37 respectively for the traditional GM(1.1) model. Thus, the new GM(1.1) model proposed in this paper, with advantages of practical application and high accuracy, provides a new method for cost forecasting in coal mining, and then help decision makers to make more scientific decisions for the mining operation.
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Abstract

The present article investigates the dynamic behavior of a fully assembled turbogenerator system influenced by misalignment. In the past, most of the researchers have neglected the foundation flexibility in the turbogenerator systems in their study, to overcome this modelling error a more realistic model of a turbogenerator system has been attempted by considering flexible shafts, flexible coupling, flexible bearings and flexible foundation. Equations of motion for fully assembled turbogenerator system including flexible foundations have been derived by using finite element method. The methodology developed based on least squares technique requires forced response information to quantify the bearing–coupling–foundation dynamic parameters of the system associated with different faults along with residual unbalances. The proposed methodology is tested for the various level of measurement noise and modelling error in the system parameters, i.e., 5% deviation in E (modulus of elasticity) and ρ (density), respectively, for robustness of the algorithm. In a practical sense, the condition analyzed in the present article relates to the identification of misalignment and other dynamic parameters viz. bearing and residual unbalance in a rotor integrated with flexible foundation.
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