Changes in the size and the age structure of a population have a great impact on an economy, especially on national savings and capital flows. Poland’s population, although still relatively young when compared to other developed countries, is expected to experience accelerated ageing and decline in forthcoming decades. In this paper, we assess the effects of these processes for Polish economy. Using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks and a variable retirement age, we simulate dynamics of real interest rates, main macro aggregates as well as net foreign assets to GDP. We show that rapid ageing will reduce the interest rate gap between Poland and the developed countries by 1.3-2 p.p. We also document a strong positive relationship between interest rates and the retirement age and find that the decline in the interest rate in Poland is primarily driven by the surviving probability shock
Forecasting yield curves with regime switches is important in academia and financial industry. As the number of interest rate maturities increases, it poses difficulties in estimating parameters due to the curse of dimensionality. To deal with such a feature, factor models have been developed. However, the existing approaches are restrictive and largely based on the stationarity assumption of the factors. This inaccuracy creates non-ignorable financial risks, especially when the market is volatile. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to adaptively forecast yield curves. Specifically, functional principal component analysis (FPCA) is used to extract factors capable of representing the features of yield curves. The local AR(1) model with time-dependent parameters is used to forecast each factor. Simulation and empirical studies reveal the superiority of this method over its natural competitor, the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model. For the yield curves of the U.S. and China, the adaptive method provides more accurate 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts.
The swap spread is defined as the difference between the fixed rate of an interest rate swap and the yield of the treasury with the same maturity. The swap spread is usually interpreted as the effective proxy of bank liquidity and the credit spread indicator. The interpretation is very similar to the LIBOR-OIS spread and in the context of Polish interbank market – WIBOR-OIS. However, WIBOR-OIS is less reliable during the crisis of confidence because of lack of interbank operation with the maturity longer than 1 month. Swap spreads base on two liquid instruments, thus they are free of this defect. The main goal of this paper is to assess how Polish swap spreads and their conditional variance reacted to important events connected with the subprime crisis and crisis of confidence in the Polish interbank market.
This study examines whether the lowering interest-rate environment in CEE countries since the early 2000’s increased bank risk-taking behaviour. We employ 6,979 annual observations from the Bankscope database over the period 1997‒2011 and find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking, measured by risk assets, and interest rates. On the contrary, there is a negative relationsh ipbetween non-performing loans and interest rates. These results are robust across a number of different specifications that account,inter alia, for the potential endogeneity of interest rates and/or the dynamics of bank risk. Moreover, we provide evidence that these findings are mainly driven by the banking sector of the Russian Federation rather than that of the rest CEE countries.
Several conclusions and recommendations concerning sediment trap geometry, the technique of their deployment and interpretation of measurements results are described in this paper. Only cylindrical sediment traps are able to cope with the diverse and dynamic environment of glaciated fjords. The relation between different trap parameters shows the optimal proportion of cylinder diameter as being between 6 and 10 cm and ratio length/diameter not less than 7/1. During the peak of the melting season in Kongsfjorden (Spitsbergen) the rate of sedimentation of total matter reaches over 900 g m2 d1 and the velocity of brackish water current can reach 80 cm s1 on the surface. Owing to the high productivity of Arctic fiords and large concentration of suspended mineral matter it is possible to collect of large samples in a short time, therefore prevention of sediment traps by swimmers is not necessary.
Luminescence dating is based mainly on the dosimetric properties of quartz and feldspar. These minerals are among the most popular found on Earth, resulting in the possibility of using luminescence methods in practically any environment. Currently, quartz remains the best recognized mineral in terms of dosimetric properties, particularly with regards to results obtained for quartz grains, which are regarded as being the most reliable in luminescence dating. Supporters of luminescence methods are constantly growing, however, these groups do not always have sufficient knowledge to avoid even the most basic of issues that may be encountered overall – from the process of sampling through to the awareness of what a single luminescence result represents. The present paper provides an overview of several practical aspects of luminescence dating such as correct sampling procedures and all necessary information regarding the calculation of the dose rate and equivalent dose with particular reference to potential problems that occur when the age of the sample is being determined. All these aspects are crucial for obtaining a reliable dating result, on the other hand, they remain a potential source of uncertainty.
Thermoregulation is fully developed in 5 day old Wilson's storm petrels Oceanites oceanicus (Kuhl). Resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body temperature (Tb) of unattended 1- and 3-day old chicks continuously decrease at ambient temperature (Ta) of 5°C. After being heated the chicks return to normothermia. Ability to survive temporal deep hypothermia seems to be an adaptation to absence of parents and low temperatures in the nest during first days of life. After snow storm, during two days of starvation, chick RMR decreases by 40% at Ta of 0°C, but chick Tb is stable. This suggest decrease of thermal conductance (Ct). Fall of Ct may suggest beginning of hypohermia.
Twelve glaciers, representing various types, were investigated between 2000 and 2005, in a region adjacent to the northern reaches of Billefjorden, central Spitsbergen ( Svalbard ). On the basis of measurements taken using reference points, DGPS and GPS systems, analyses of aerial photographs and satellite images, geomorphological indicators and archival data their rates of deglaciation following the “Little Ice Age” (LIA) maximum were calculated variously on centennial, decadal and annual time scales. As most Svalbard glaciers have debris-covered snouts, a clean ice margin was measured in the absence of debris-free ice front. The retreat rates for both types of ice fronts were very similar. All studied glaciers have been retreating since the termination of the Little Ice Age at the end of 19th century. The fastest retreat rate was observed in the case of the Nordenskiöldbreen tidewater glacier (mean average linear retreat rate 35 m a-1). For land-terminating glaciers the rates were in range of 5 to 15 m a-1. Presumably owing to climate warming, most of the glacier retreat rates have increased several fold in recent decades. The secondary factors influencing the retreat rates have been identified as: water depth at the grounding line in the case of tidewater glaciers, surging history, altitude, shape and aspect of glacier margin, and bedrock relief. The retreat rates are similar to glaciers from other parts of Spitsbergen . Analyses of available data on glacier retreat rates in Svalbard have allowed us to distinguish four major types: very dynamic, surging tidewater glaciers with post-LIA retreat rates of between 100 and 220 m a-1, other tidewater glaciers receding of a rate of 15 to 70 m a-1, land terminating valley polythermal glaciers with an average retreat of 10 to 20 m a-1 and small, usually cold, glaciers with the retreat rates below 10 m a-1.
Because of the value of time, investors are interested in obtaining economic benefits rather early and at a highest return. But some investing opportunities, e.g. mineral projects, require from an investor to freeze their capital for several years. In exchange for this, they expect adequate remuneration for waiting, uncertainty and possible opportunities lost. This compensation is reflected in the level of interest rate they demand. Commonly used approach of project evaluation – the discounted cash flow analysis – uses this interest rate to determine present value of future cash flows. Mining investors should worry about project’s cash flows with greater assiduousness – especially about those arising in first years of the project lifetime. Having regard to the mining industry, this technique views a mineral deposit as complete production project where the base sources of uncertainty are future levels of economic-financial and technical parameters. Some of them are more risky than others – this paper tries to split apart and weigh their importance by the example of Polish hard coal projects at the feasibility study. The work has been performed with the sensitivity analysis of the internal rate of return. Calculations were made using the ‘bare bones’ assumption (on all the equity basis, constant money, after tax, flat price and constant operating costs), which creates a good reference and starting point for comparing other investment alternatives and for future investigations. The first part introduces with the discounting issue; in the following sections the paper presents data and methods used for spinning off risk components from the feasibility-stage discount rate and, in the end, some recommendations are presented.
The Silurian Pelplin Formation is a part of a thick, mud-prone distal fill of the Caledonian foredeep, which stretches along the western margin of the East European Craton. The Pelplin Formation consists of organic carbon- rich mudstones that have recently been the target of intensive investigations, as they represent a potential source of shale gas. The Pelplin mudstones host numerous calcite concretions containing authigenic pyrite and barite. Mineralogical and petrographic examination (XRD, optical microscopy, cathodoluminoscopy, SEM-EDS) and stable isotope analyses (δ13Corg, δ13C and δ18O of carbonates, δ34S and δ18O of barite) were carried out in order to understand the diagenetic conditions that led to precipitation of this carbonate-sulfide-sulfate paragenesis and to see if the concretions can enhance the understanding of sedimentary settings in the Baltic and Lublin basins during the Silurian. Barite formed during early diagenesis before and during the concretionary growth due to a deceleration of sedimentation during increased primary productivity. The main stages of concretionary growth took place in yet uncompacted sediments shortly after their deposition in the sulfate reduction zone. This precompactional cementation led to preferential preservation of original sedimentary structures, faunal assemblages and early- diagenetic barite, which have been mostly lost in the surrounding mudstones during burial. These components allowed for the reconstruction of important paleoenvironmental conditions in the Baltic and Lublin basins, such as depth, proximity to the detrital orogenic source and marine primary productivity. Investigation of the concretions also enabled estimation of the magnitude of mechanical compaction of the mudstones and calculation of original sedimentation rates. Moreover, it showed that biogenic methane was produced at an early-diagenetic stage, whereas thermogenic hydrocarbons migrated through the Pelplin Formation during deep burial.