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Abstract

The reports of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicate that the growing emission of greenhouse gases, produced from the combustion of fossil fuels, mainly carbon dioxide, leads to negative climate changes. Therefore, the methods of mitigating the greenhouse gases emission to the atmosphere, especially of carbon dioxide, are being sought. Numerous studies are focused on so-called geological sequestration, i.e. injecting carbon dioxide to appropriate geological strata or ocean waters. One of the methods, which are not fully utilized, is the application of appropriate techniques in agriculture. The plant production in agriculture is based on the absorption of carbon dioxide in the photosynthesis process. Increasing the plant production directly leads to the absorption of carbon dioxide. Therefore, investigation of carbon dioxide absorption by particular crops is a key issue. In Poland, ca. 7.6 mln ha of cereals is cultivated, including: rye, wheat, triticale, oat and barley. These plants absorb approximately 23.8 mln t C annually, including 9.8 mln t C/yr in grains, 9.4 mln t C/yr in straw and 4.7 mln t C/yr in roots. The China, these cereals are cultivated on the area over 24 mln ha and absorb 98.9 mln t C/yr, including 55 mln tC/yr in grains, 36 in straw, and 7.9 mln t C/yr in roots. The second direction for mitigating the carbon dioxide emission into the atmosphere involves substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy sources to deliver primary energy. Cultivation of winter cereals as cover crops may lead to the enhancement of carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere in the course of their growth. Moreover, the produced biomass can be used for energy generation.
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Abstract

The paper looks at an analysis of the tendency of changes in the fuel structure of electricity generation and thus resulting changes in carbon dioxide emissions. Forecasts drawn up by various institutions and organizations were selected for the analysis. Firstly, on the basis of statistical data contained in (IEA 2017a, IEA 2008) and with the use of Kay’s indicators, the impact of changes in energy intensity of the national income and energy mix on changes in carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2006–2015 for the OECD countries and Poland were analyzed. A small effect of changes was found in the fuel mix in this period of time on the emissions. The main impact was due to changes in the energy intensity of the national income and changes in the national income per capita. Next, selected fuel scenarios for the period up to 2050 (60) were discussed – WEC, IEA, EIA, BP, Shell, with a focus on the WEC scenarios. These have been developed for various assumptions with regard to the pace of economic development, population growth, and developments of the political situation and the situation on the fuel market. For this reason, it is difficult to assess the reliability thereof. The subject of the discussion was mainly the data on the fuel structure of electricity generation and energy intensity of national income and changes in carbon dioxide emissions. The final part of the paper offers a general analysis of forecasts drawn up for Poland. These are quite diverse, with some of them being developed as part of drawing up the Energy Policy for Poland until 2050, and some covering the period up to 2035. An observation has been made that some forecasts render results similar to those characteristic of the WEC Hard Rock scenario.
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