Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Content

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2013 | No 4 |

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Abstract

Reliable data analysis is one of the hardest tasks in sciences and social sciences. Often misleading and sometimes puzzling results arise when the analysis is done without regard for the special features of the data. In this exposition, I will focus on designing new statistical tools to deal with some prominent questions in Finance and Economics. In particular, I will talk about the following. (1) How to characterize the randomness of variables, motivated by a problem in the pricing of financial options. (2) Uncovering the relation between interest rates on different maturities, now and in the future; the "term structure of interest rates". (3) Modelling the unconventional nonlinear long-memory dynamics that arise from a general-equilibrium economic model, and their implications for exchange rates, stock market indexes, and all macroeconomic variables; with recommendations for trading in financial markets, but also for the design of macroeconomic stabilization policies by governments.

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Authors and Affiliations

Karim M. Abadir
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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to compare reactions of two stock markets, the German and the French, to releases of macroeconomic fundamentals emanating from Germany and the U.S. We examine the reaction of intraday returns and volatility of the CAC40 and the DAX indices to macroeconomic surprises. We find that both American and German macroeconomic releases cause an immediate response in returns and volatility of the German and the French stock market sampled at a five-minute frequency. The reaction to the American macroeconomic surprises is stronger than to the German ones.

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Authors and Affiliations

Barbara Będowska-Sójka
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Abstract

The paper refines Lenk’s concept of improving the performance of the computed harmonic mean estimator (HME) in three directions. First, the adjusted HME is derived from an exact analytical identity. Second, Lenk’s assumption concerning the appropriate subset A of the parameter space is significantly weakened. Third, it is shown that, under certain restrictions imposed on A, a fundamental identity underlying the HME also holds for improper prior densities, which substantially extends applicability of the adjusted HME.

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Authors and Affiliations

Anna Pajor
Jacek Osiewalski

Editorial office

Editors
JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland

Co-Editors

KATARZYNA BIEŃ-BARKOWSKA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MIKOŁAJ CZAJKOWSKI, University of Warsaw, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
ANNA PAJOR, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Associate Editors
KARIM ABADIR, The American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt
ANINDYA BANERJEE, University of Birmingham, UK
STEPHEN HALL, University of Leicester, UK
GARY KOOP, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
MARK STEEL, University of Warwick, UK
MARTIN WAGNER, Technical University of Dortmund, Germany
JAN WERNER, University of Minnesota, USA
PETER WINKER, University of Giessen, Germany

Editorial Board

HERMAN van DIJK, Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, University of Pennsylvania, Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics, USA
TIMO TERASVIRTA, University of Aarhus, Denmark
HELMUT LUETKEPOHL, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

Publishing Editor

ANNA STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, University of Lodz, Poland

Editorial Assistant

AGNIESZKA RYGIEL, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Contact

CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland
e-mail: cejeme@pan.pl

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Submission Guidelines and Instructions for Authors of accepted papers please visit: http://cejeme.org/submissionguidelines.aspx

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